An "Educated Guess" as to What Causes an Observed Phenomenon Is Known as a ___.

Proposed caption for an observation, miracle, or scientific problem

A hypothesis (plural hypotheses) is a proposed caption for a phenomenon. For a hypothesis to exist a scientific hypothesis, the scientific method requires that one can exam it. Scientists generally base scientific hypotheses on previous observations that cannot satisfactorily be explained with the bachelor scientific theories. Even though the words "hypothesis" and "theory" are often used interchangeably, a scientific hypothesis is not the same as a scientific theory. A working hypothesis is a provisionally accustomed hypothesis proposed for further inquiry,^[1] in a process beginning with an educated guess or thought.^[2]

A different meaning of the term hypothesis is used in formal logic, to announce the antecedent of a proffer; thus in the proffer "If P, then Q", P denotes the hypothesis (or antecedent); Q can exist called a consistent. P is the assumption in a (maybe counterfactual) What If question.

The adjective hypothetical, meaning "having the nature of a hypothesis", or "being causeless to exist every bit an immediate consequence of a hypothesis", can refer to any of these meanings of the term "hypothesis".

Uses

In its ancient usage, hypothesis referred to a summary of the plot of a classical drama. The English give-and-take hypothesis comes from the ancient Greek word ὑπόθεσις hypothesis whose literal or etymological sense is "putting or placing under" and hence in extended use has many other meanings including "assumption".^{[1] [3] [4] [5]}

In Plato'southward Meno (86e–87b), Socrates dissects virtue with a method used by mathematicians,^[six] that of "investigating from a hypothesis."^[seven] In this sense, 'hypothesis' refers to a clever idea or to a convenient mathematical approach that simplifies cumbersome calculations.^[8] Key Bellarmine gave a famous example of this usage in the alarm issued to Galileo in the early 17th century: that he must not care for the move of the World as a reality, but just as a hypothesis.^[ix]

In mutual usage in the 21st century, a hypothesis refers to a provisional idea whose merit requires evaluation. For proper evaluation, the framer of a hypothesis needs to ascertain specifics in operational terms. A hypothesis requires more than work by the researcher in order to either confirm or disprove it. In due course, a confirmed hypothesis may go part of a theory or occasionally may grow to become a theory itself. Normally, scientific hypotheses take the form of a mathematical model.^[ten] Sometimes, but not always, one tin can also formulate them as existential statements, stating that some item example of the phenomenon nether test has some characteristic and causal explanations, which have the general form of universal statements, stating that every case of the phenomenon has a detail characteristic.

In entrepreneurial scientific discipline, a hypothesis is used to formulate conditional ideas within a business organisation setting. The formulated hypothesis is then evaluated where either the hypothesis is proven to be "true" or "false" through a verifiability- or falsifiability-oriented experiment.^{[11] [12] [13]}

Any useful hypothesis volition enable predictions past reasoning (including deductive reasoning). It might predict the outcome of an experiment in a laboratory setting or the observation of a phenomenon in nature. The prediction may also invoke statistics and only talk near probabilities. Karl Popper, following others, has argued that a hypothesis must exist falsifiable, and that one cannot regard a proposition or theory as scientific if it does not admit the possibility of existence shown false. Other philosophers of science have rejected the benchmark of falsifiability or supplemented it with other criteria, such as verifiability (e.g., verificationism) or coherence (east.thousand., confirmation holism). The scientific method involves experimentation, to exam the ability of some hypothesis to fairly answer the question under investigation. In contrast, unfettered ascertainment is not as likely to raise unexplained issues or open up questions in scientific discipline, as would the formulation of a crucial experiment to test the hypothesis. A thought experiment might also be used to exam the hypothesis as well.

In framing a hypothesis, the investigator must not currently know the upshot of a test or that it remains reasonably nether continuing investigation. But in such cases does the experiment, exam or study potentially increase the probability of showing the truth of a hypothesis.^{[14] : pp17, 49–50} If the researcher already knows the outcome, it counts as a "result" — and the researcher should have already considered this while formulating the hypothesis. If one cannot assess the predictions past observation or past experience, the hypothesis needs to exist tested by others providing observations. For example, a new technology or theory might brand the necessary experiments viable.

Scientific hypothesis

People refer to a trial solution to a problem as a hypothesis, frequently called an "educated guess"^{[15] [ii]} because it provides a suggested outcome based on the prove. However, some scientists reject the term "educated guess" as incorrect. Experimenters may test and reject several hypotheses before solving the problem.

According to Schick and Vaughn,^[16] researchers weighing up culling hypotheses may take into consideration:

• Testability (compare falsifiability as discussed above)
• Parsimony (every bit in the application of "Occam's razor", discouraging the postulation of excessive numbers of entities)
• Telescopic – the apparent application of the hypothesis to multiple cases of phenomena
• Fruitfulness – the prospect that a hypothesis may explain further phenomena in the futurity
• Conservatism – the degree of "fit" with existing recognized knowledge-systems.

Working hypothesis

A working hypothesis is a hypothesis that is provisionally accepted as a footing for farther enquiry^[17] in the hope that a tenable theory volition be produced, even if the hypothesis ultimately fails.^[eighteen] Like all hypotheses, a working hypothesis is synthetic as a argument of expectations, which tin be linked to the exploratory inquiry purpose in empirical investigation. Working hypotheses are oft used as a conceptual framework in qualitative research.^{[19] [20]}

The conditional nature of working hypotheses makes them useful equally an organizing device in applied research. Here they act like a useful guide to address problems that are even so in a formative phase.^[21]

In contempo years, philosophers of science have tried to integrate the diverse approaches to evaluating hypotheses, and the scientific method in full general, to course a more complete system that integrates the individual concerns of each approach. Notably, Imre Lakatos and Paul Feyerabend, Karl Popper's colleague and educatee, respectively, have produced novel attempts at such a synthesis.

Hypotheses, concepts and measurement

Concepts in Hempel's deductive-nomological model play a fundamental role in the development and testing of hypotheses. Most formal hypotheses connect concepts by specifying the expected relationships between propositions. When a set of hypotheses are grouped together they become a type of conceptual framework. When a conceptual framework is complex and incorporates causality or explanation information technology is generally referred to as a theory. According to noted philosopher of science Carl Gustav Hempel "An adequate empirical estimation turns a theoretical organization into a testable theory: The hypothesis whose constituent terms have been interpreted go capable of test by reference to appreciable phenomena. Oft the interpreted hypothesis will exist derivative hypotheses of the theory; but their confirmation or disconfirmation by empirical data will then immediately strengthen or weaken also the archaic hypotheses from which they were derived."^[22]

Hempel provides a useful metaphor that describes the human relationship between a conceptual framework and the framework as information technology is observed and perhaps tested (interpreted framework). "The whole system floats, equally it were, above the airplane of observation and is anchored to it past rules of interpretation. These might be viewed as strings which are not part of the network only link sure points of the latter with specific places in the plane of observation. Past virtue of those interpretative connections, the network tin can function as a scientific theory."^[23] Hypotheses with concepts anchored in the airplane of observation are set up to be tested. In "bodily scientific practice the process of framing a theoretical structure and of interpreting information technology are not always sharply separated, since the intended interpretation usually guides the construction of the theoretician."^[24] It is, however, "possible and indeed desirable, for the purposes of logical clarification, to separate the two steps conceptually."^[24]

Statistical hypothesis testing

When a possible correlation or similar relation between phenomena is investigated, such every bit whether a proposed remedy is effective in treating a illness, the hypothesis that a relation exists cannot exist examined the same way ane might examine a proposed new police of nature. In such an investigation, if the tested remedy shows no effect in a few cases, these exercise not necessarily falsify the hypothesis. Instead, statistical tests are used to determine how probable it is that the overall effect would be observed if the hypothesized relation does not exist. If that likelihood is sufficiently small (e.grand., less than 1%), the existence of a relation may be assumed. Otherwise, any observed effect may be due to pure hazard.

In statistical hypothesis testing, 2 hypotheses are compared. These are called the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis. The nix hypothesis is the hypothesis that states that there is no relation between the phenomena whose relation is nether investigation, or at least not of the class given past the alternative hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis, as the name suggests, is the alternative to the goose egg hypothesis: information technology states that at that place is some kind of relation. The alternative hypothesis may accept several forms, depending on the nature of the hypothesized relation; in particular, information technology can be ii-sided (for example: there is some effect, in a withal unknown direction) or one-sided (the direction of the hypothesized relation, positive or negative, is fixed in accelerate).^[25]

Conventional significance levels for testing hypotheses (acceptable probabilities of wrongly rejecting a truthful null hypothesis) are .10, .05, and .01. The significance level for deciding whether the null hypothesis is rejected and the alternative hypothesis is accepted must be determined in accelerate, before the observations are collected or inspected. If these criteria are determined later, when the information to exist tested are already known, the test is invalid.^[26]

The above procedure is actually dependent on the number of the participants (units or sample size) that are included in the report. For instance, to avoid having the sample size be also small to decline a naught hypothesis, information technology is recommended that one specify a sufficient sample size from the beginning. It is appropriate to ascertain a small, medium and large upshot size for each of a number of of import statistical tests which are used to test the hypotheses.^[27]

Honours

Mountain Hypothesis in Antarctica is named in appreciation of the part of hypothesis in scientific research.

Encounter also

• Axiom
• Bold hypothesis
• Case study
• Theorize
• Explanandum
• Hypothesis theory – a enquiry area in cognitive psychology
• Hypothetical question
• Logical positivism
• Operationalization
• Philosophiae Naturalis Principia Mathematica – for Newton's position on hypotheses
• Reductionism
• Research design
• Folklore of scientific knowledge
• Theorem
• Thesis argument

References

1. ^ ^{a b} Hilborn, Ray; Mangel, Marc (1997). The ecological detective: confronting models with data. Princeton University Press. p. 24. ISBN978-0-691-03497-3 . Retrieved 22 Baronial 2011.
2. ^ ^{a b} "In general we look for a new police by the following procedure. Outset nosotros guess it. ...", —Richard Feynman (1965) The Character of Concrete Constabulary p.156
3. ^ Supposition is itself a Latinate counterpart of hypothesis as both are chemical compound words synthetic from words meaning respectively "nether, below" and "identify, placing, putting" in either language, Latin or Greek.
4. ^ Harper, Douglas. "hypothesis". Online Etymology Dictionary.
5. ^ ὑπόθεσις . Liddell, Henry George; Scott, Robert; A Greek–English Dictionary at the Perseus Project.
6. ^ Wilbur R. Knorr, "Construction as being proof in ancient geometry", p. 125, equally selected past Jean Christianidis (ed.), Classics in the history of Greek mathematics, Kluwer.
7. ^ Gregory Vlastos, Myles Burnyeat (1994) Socratic studies, Cambridge ISBN 0-521-44735-6, p. 1
8. ^ "Neutral hypotheses, those of which the bailiwick matter can never be directly proved or disproved, are very numerous in all sciences." — Morris Cohen and Ernest Nagel (1934) An introduction to logic and scientific method p. 375. New York: Harcourt, Caryatid, and Visitor.
9. ^ "Bellarmine (Ital. Bellarmino), Roberto Francesco Romolo", Encyclopædia Britannica, Eleventh Edition.: 'Bellarmine did non proscribe the Copernican organisation ... all he claimed was that it should be presented equally a hypothesis until information technology should receive scientific demonstration.' This commodity incorporates text from a publication now in the public domain:Chisholm, Hugh, ed. (1911). "Hypothesis". Encyclopædia Britannica. Vol. xiv (11th ed.). Cambridge University Press. p. 208.
10. ^ Crease, Robert P. (2008) The Great Equations ISBN 978-0-393-06204-5, p.112 lists the conservation of energy equally an case of accounting a abiding of motion. Hypothesized by Sadi Carnot, truth demonstrated by James Prescott Joule, proven past Emmy Noether.
11. ^ Harvard Business Review (2013) "Why Lean Startup Changes Everything"
12. ^ Tristan Kromer 2014 "Success Metric vs. Fail Condition"
13. ^ Lean Startup Circle "What is Lean Startup?"
14. ^ Popper 1959
15. ^ "When it is non clear under which police of nature an effect or class of upshot belongs, we try to fill up this gap by means of a guess. Such guesses accept been given the proper name conjectures or hypotheses.", Hans Christian Ørsted(1811) "First Introduction to Full general Physics" ¶18. Selected Scientific Works of Hans Christian Ørsted, ISBN 0-691-04334-5 p.297
16. ^ Schick, Theodore; Vaughn, Lewis (2002). How to think about weird things: critical thinking for a New Historic period. Boston: McGraw-Hill Higher Education. ISBN0-7674-2048-9.
17. ^ Oxford Dictionary of Sports Science & Medicine. Eprint via Answers.com.
18. ^ Come across in "hypothesis", Century Dictionary Supplement, v. 1, 1909, New York: The Century Company. Reprinted, five. 11, p. 616 (via Internet Archive) of the Century Dictionary and Concordance, 1911.

    hypothesis [...]—Working hypothesis, a hypothesis suggested or supported in some mensurate by features of observed facts, from which consequences may be deduced which can be tested by experiment and special observations, and which information technology is proposed to subject to an extended course of such investigation, with the hope that, even should the hypothesis thus exist overthrown, such inquiry may lead to a tenable theory.

19. ^ Patricia K. Shields, Hassan Tajalli (2006). "Intermediate Theory: The Missing Link in Successful Student Scholarship". Journal of Public Diplomacy Didactics. 12 (iii): 313–334. doi:x.1080/15236803.2006.12001438. S2CID 141201197.
20. ^ Patricia M. Shields (1998). "Pragmatism Every bit a Philosophy of Science: A Tool For Public Administration". In Jay D. White (ed.). Research in Public Assistants. Vol. 4. pp. 195–225 [211]. ISBN1-55938-888-9.
21. ^ Patricia K. Shields and Nandhini Rangarajan. 2013. A Playbook for Research Methods: Integrating Conceptual Frameworks and Project Management. Stillwater, OK: New Forums Press. pp. 109–157
22. ^ Hempel, C. G. (1952). Fundamentals of concept formation in empirical scientific discipline. Chicago, Illinois: The University of Chicago Press, p. 36
23. ^ Hempel, C. G. (1952). Fundamentals of concept formation in empirical science. Chicago, Illinois: The Academy of Chicago Printing, p. 36.
24. ^ ^{a b} Hempel, C. Chiliad. (1952). Fundamentals of concept formation in empirical science. Chicago, Illinois: The University of Chicago Press, p. 33.
25. ^ Altman. DG., Applied Statistics for Medical Inquiry, CRC Press, 1990, Section 8.5,
26. ^ Mellenbergh, One thousand.J.(2008). Chapter 8: Enquiry designs: Testing of research hypotheses. In H.J. Adèr & M.J. Mellenbergh (Eds.) (with contributions past D.J. Paw), Advising on Research Methods: A consultant's companion (pp. 183-209). Huizen, Holland: Johannes van Kessel Publishing
27. ^ Altman. DG., Practical Statistics for Medical Research, CRC Press, 1990, Section fifteen.3,

Bibliography

• Popper, Karl R. (1959), The Logic of Scientific Discovery 1934, 1959.

External links

castellanoforeplarks.blogspot.com

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothesis

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